Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.458648 0.532225 0.613186 0.708793 0.818527 0.940451 1.086109
2025-05-11 0.336115 0.435404 0.556352 0.714111 0.914029 1.158481 1.479613
2025-05-18 0.266195 0.373363 0.513809 0.710470 0.977770 1.327334 1.817967
2025-05-25 0.217635 0.326007 0.476845 0.700701 1.022820 1.467615 2.126064
2025-06-01 0.183430 0.291042 0.448895 0.695278 1.067697 1.606520 2.441323
2025-06-08 0.152887 0.255702 0.413919 0.672452 1.081025 1.697532 2.692518
2025-06-15 0.142614 0.249804 0.421815 0.714346 1.194859 1.946746 3.203704
2025-06-22 0.121608 0.222933 0.392364 0.692000 1.203082 2.031536 3.464529
2025-06-29 0.104492 0.200000 0.366038 0.670691 1.209030 2.110948 3.721407
2025-07-06 0.090924 0.181310 0.344345 0.654077 1.219911 2.197707 3.996371
2025-07-13 0.083642 0.173194 0.340273 0.667949 1.284994 2.381712 4.454268
2025-07-20 0.079880 0.171287 0.347250 0.702635 1.390807 2.645949 5.077207
2025-07-27 0.074287 0.165171 0.345881 0.722081 1.471783 2.875858 5.665241
2025-08-03 0.067853 0.156446 0.338389 0.728778 1.529286 3.068420 6.203561
2025-08-10 0.061225 0.146290 0.326614 0.725126 1.565348 3.222626 6.681324
2025-08-17 0.054866 0.135774 0.312701 0.715167 1.587077 3.350120 7.117252
2025-08-24 0.049636 0.127067 0.301547 0.709638 1.617067 3.496100 7.602465
2025-08-31 0.043727 0.115852 0.283382 0.686362 1.606223 3.557015 7.917405
2025-09-07 0.042943 0.117116 0.293849 0.729080 1.744578 3.941515 8.945166
2025-09-14 0.038059 0.107267 0.277007 0.706295 1.733030 4.004699 9.289017
2025-09-21 0.033805 0.098410 0.261419 0.684566 1.721375 4.066049 9.633386
2025-09-28 0.030287 0.090991 0.248441 0.667624 1.719030 4.147452 10.028970
2025-10-05 0.028659 0.088578 0.247894 0.681769 1.793050 4.408620 10.856230